My Portfolio - 30 Dec 15

This will be the last post for 2015.

The strategy of switching my portfolio to a dividend generating one had not been particularly successful. My unrealised loss of my portfolio in the dividend generating counters is more than the dividends I received. 
Couple of learning points. 

1) Timing is crucial. I had been patient over the past few years to wait for the correct opportunity to enter the market. But entering the markets too early had resulted in picking up counters on their way down. 

2) Furthermore, my entry strategy is not well thought through also. I should have picked up identified counters when the counters have dropped by 15-20%. Should not have picked up the counters when a minor correction sets in (5-10%).

I had received dividends in Dec 15 amounting to S$367.30. Total dividends collected in 2015 is S$10,298.98. Average dividend per month is S$858.25.

Cash is ~2% of my portfolio. 


S/N  Counter (Singapore)
1      RafflesMG
2      Ascendas REIT
3      CDL HTrust
4      Capitaland
5      City Dev
6      Far East HTrust
7      ST Engineering 
8      CapitalR China Tr
9      Keppel Infra Tr
10    Capitaland Commercial Trust
11    OUE H Trust
12    Keppel Corp
13    DBS
14    OCBC
15    UOB

S/N  Counter (USA)
1       VNGRD REIT
2       VNGRD ENERGY
3       VNGRD UTILITIES

Realised Gains (Since 2009)
S$143,895.22
 
Dividends (Since 2009)
S$ 42,702.67

All the best in 2016 !

My Portfolio - 30 Nov 15

The property and REIT sector took a beating this year. I added positions in City Dev. 

I had received dividends in Nov 15 amounting to S$971.22. Total dividends collected in 2015 is S$9,931.68.
 
Cash is ~2% of my portfolio.


S/N  Counter (Singapore)
1      RafflesMG
2      Ascendas REIT
3      CDL HTrust
4      Capitaland
5      City Dev
6      Far East HTrust
7      ST Engineering 
8      CapitalR China Tr
9      Keppel Infra Tr
10    Capitaland Commercial Trust
11    OUE H Trust
12    Keppel Corp
13    DBS
14    OCBC
15    UOB

S/N  Counter (USA)
1       VNGRD REIT
2       VNGRD ENERGY
3       VNGRD UTILITIES

Realised Gains (Since 2009)
S$143,895.22
 
Dividends (Since 2009)
S$ 42,335.37

My Portfolio - 31 Oct 15

The market had recovered mildly, the fed is expected to be dovish and will maintain a gradual increase in interest rates. I added positions in City Dev, Keppel Corp DBS, OCBC and UOB. I sold off my positions in two ETFs, STI ETF and VNGRD S&P500.

I had received dividends in Oct15 amounting to S$665.43. Total dividends collected in 2015 is S$8,960.46.
 
Cash is ~2% of my portfolio.
S/N  Counter (Singapore)
1      RafflesMG
2      Ascendas REIT
3      CDL HTrust
4      Capitaland
5      City Dev
6      Far East HTrust
7      ST Engineering 
8      CapitalR China Tr
9      Keppel Infra Tr
10    Capitaland Commercial Trust
11    OUE H Trust
12    Keppel Corp

13    DBS
14    OCBC
15    UOB

S/N  Counter (USA)
1       VNGRD REIT
2       VNGRD ENERGY
3       VNGRD UTILITIES

Realised Gains (Since 2009)
S$143,895.22
 
Dividends (Since 2009)
S$ 41,364.15 

My Portfolio - 30 Sep 15

Sep like Aug had been a turbulent month for the stock market. I leveraged on the opportunity to add positions in Ascendas REIT, CDL H Trust, Capitaland, City Dev, ST Engineering, CapitaR China Tr, CCT, STI ETF, DBS, OCBC and UOB

I had received dividends in Sep 15 amounting to S$1013.20. Total dividends collected in 2015 is S$8,295.03.
 
Cash is ~2% of my portfolio. I had also injected S$16,000 into my portfolio from my own savings.
Long Positions

S/N  Counter (Singapore)
1      RafflesMG
2      Ascendas REIT
3      CDL HTrust
4      Capitaland
5      City Dev
6      Far East HTrust
7      ST Engineering 
8      CapitalR China Tr
9      Keppel Infra Tr
10    Capitaland Commercial Trust
11    OUE H Trust
12    Keppel Corp
13    STI ETF
14    DBS
15    OCBC
16    UOB


S/N  Counter (USA)
1       VNGRD REIT
2       VNGRD ENERGY
3       VNGRD UTILITIES
4       VNGRD S&P500

Realised Gains (Since 2009)
S$143,087.43

Dividends (Since 2009)
S$ 40,698.72  (correction from previous figures)

My Portfolio - 31 Aug 15

Aug 15 had been a turbulent month for the stock market. I leveraged on the opportunity to add positions in Ascendas REIT, CDL H Trust, Capitaland, City Dev, ST Engineering, CapitaR China Tr, OUE H Trust and CCT and VNGRD S&P500 (Passive Investing), Keppel Corp and Kep Infra Trust.

I had received dividends amounting to S$1903.75.
 
Cash is ~7% of my portfolio.
 
Long Positions

S/N  Counter (Singapore)
1      RafflesMG
2      Ascendas REIT
3      CDL HTrust
4      Capitaland
5      City Dev
6      Far East HTrust
7      ST Engineering 
8      CapitalR China Tr
9      Keppel Infra Tr
10    OUE H Trust
11    CCT
12    Keppel Corp 
13    Kep Infra Trust


S/N  Counter (USA)
1       VNGRD REIT
2       VNGRD ENERGY
3       VNGRD UTILITIES
4       VNGRD S&P500

Realised Gains (Since 2009)
SGX - S$142,975.50

Dividends (Since 2009)
S$ 43,091.70

My Portfolio - 30 Jul 15

I had closed my short position in SIA Engineering. Initiated short positions at 4.2 and 3.8. Close the position at an average of 3.7.

I sold my FX positions in RMB. Made a decent profit of ~11% over 2.5 years.


I liquidated position in AIMSAMP CAP and Starhill Global REIT. 
I added positions in City Dev, CCT.
 
Cash is ~18.5% of my portfolio.
 
Long Positions

S/N  Counter (Singapore)
1      RafflesMG
2      Ascendas REIT
3      CDL HTrust
4      Capitaland
5      City Dev
6      Far East HTrust
7      ST Engineering 
8      CapitalR China Tr
9      Keppel Infra Tr
10    OUE H Trust
11     CCT



S/N  Counter (USA)
1       VNGRD REIT
2       VNGRD ENERGY
3       VNGRD UTILITIES

Realised Gains (Since 2009)
SGX - S$142,975.50

Dividends (Since 2009)
S$ 40,817.43

My Portfolio - May 15

Sharing details of my positions. My positions fall into three categories, high growth, high yield reits/stocks or business trusts and blue chips. These positions reflect the investment thesis that I highlighted at the beginning of the year. The last three positions are ETF positions in NYSE. I choose Vanguard due to the low expense fees. 

I also have a short position in SIA Engineering, due to the deterioration in financial performance for the past two quarters, which I believe is a fundamental change in the business.

I also have FX positions in RMB and Aus Dollar.

Cash component is ~12% of my portfolio.

Long Positions

S/N Share 1 RafflesMG 2 Ascendas REIT 3 CDL Htrust 4 Capitaland 5 City Dev 6 Far East Htrust 7 ST Engineering 8 CapitalR China Tr 9 Keppel Infra Trust 10 Starhill Global REIT 11 OUE H Trust 12 AIMSAMP CAP 13 VNGRD REIT 14 VNGRD ENERGY 15 VNGRD UTILITIES
Short Position (Contract for Difference)
S/N Stocks 1 SIA Engineering Co

Article on Asset Allocation

Gavekal published an article several years ago on a framework on asset allocation. It basically uses prices and economic activity to classify the state of the economy and decides the correct asset to invest in.

If prices are raising/dropping the model classifies the economy as inflationary/disinflationary. If economy is expanding/contracting, the model classifies the economy as booming/busting.

See the model below:

Source: Gavekal - How Asset Allocations Adds Value

1) Scenario 1 - Inflationary Bust
In this scenario, interest rates will increase and generally equities and bonds will not be performing. The model recommends selling these financial assets and holding cash in safe haven currencies (CHF, SGD).

2) Scenario 2 - Inflationary Boom
In this scenario, bonds and interest rate sensitive stocks should be avoided. It is possible that this scenario is caused by central banks pushing too much money into the system. The real beneficiaries of this environment are "real assets" such as commodities like silver and gold.

3) Scenario 3- Disinflationary Boom
With oil prices moderating to 60-70 USD per barrel, major developed economies are in a disinflationary environment. Equities will do well in this environment. This explains the run up in equities prices around the world in the past two months.

4) Scenario 4 - Disinflationary Bust
Due to a weak economy, interest rates remains low and bonds typically do well in such an environment. All other assets generally will not do well.

Personally, I think the world's economy for the next three years will be either in Scenario 2 or 3. Its time to allocate/shuffle one's asset and position them in the correct instruments.